Forward looking Expectations Sub-indice declines for sixth week in succession – Post election exuberance wanes (released January 4, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

The negative prospective mood on the state of the Canadian economy continues as 2015 is closed out. Canada’s energy rich Prairies, once again have hit a new 12 month low on the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI).

“After period of economic exuberance following the Canadian federal election we are now entering a period of greater pessimism in terms of the future strength of the Canadian economy ,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“Canadian households have endured labor-market upheavals and a loss of wealth in 2015. For working-age cohorts, the unemployment rate — which had improved to a cyclical low of 6.6% in January — rose to 7.1% in November. For older and higher-income households, expectations were dashed as the equity market fell 16% from 2014 peak levels”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 53.77 compared with last week’s 54.54. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 59.08 this week compared to 59.06 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 48.47 this week (compared to 50.01 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.71 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 55.42 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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