Views on real estate and future strength of the economy slide in confidence tracking – Ontario now hits a new 12 month low (released January 18, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

The slide in consumer confidence continued. The energy rich Prairie continue to be the most pessimistic.  Of note, Ontario has now hit a 12 month low for that province on the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index although still comparatively higher than the Prairies.

“A slide in consumer confidence in Ontario, coupled with the erosion of confidence in the energy rich Prairie province represents a one-two punch on the consumer confidence in Canada,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“Households are contending with higher out-of-pocket expenses as a weakening Canadian dollar raises the costs for consumer staples. This immediate impact on private consumption is a concern in light of surveys suggesting a decline in the demand for bank lending and a decline in business sentiment, whose impacts are generally felt in coming quarters”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 53.01 compared with last week’s 53.78. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 58.99 this week compared to 59.00 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 47.02 this week (compared to 48.56 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.67 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 53.01 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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