Canucks Projected To Miss NHL Playoffs….Just Barely

CANUCKS BANTER     By Andrew Chernoff    January 24, 2016

As the Vancouver Canucks look towards their final game of January and the approaching All-Star game, many people are already projecting who will, and will not, make the NHL playoffs at the end of the season.

I made my own point projection on the Canucks as to how they could and would finish back in the Fall.

I believe the Canucks will need at least 107 points to make the playoffs in 2016.

Most likely the Canucks will finish with 93 points, due to the youth movement and an unproven backup goaltender; and their inability to score timely goals. Also, of concern is their depth upfront to move players in and out to deal with scoring issues. You can only change lines so often during a game; and once again, you can only look to the farm team so much if you are going to make a shake up to boost an offense that is stalling. And stall it will.

Yet, I take the high road, and make this prediction:

Canucks to finish with 107 points, making the playoffs for the second straight season.

How will it be done? Hell, all they have to do is out work, out play, out shoot, out hit, and out chance their opponent’s both at home and on the road.

Unrealistic? Ye of little faith.       Just Saying….

Now with most of the season already committed, and so few games remaining to make pre-season predictions a reality, it is fascinating to dwell on what it would take to make a person still hold out hope of being right.

At Hockey-Reference.com, they take the guess work out of it all, and make a well tested argument with a formula as to which teams will and will not make the playoffs, even projecting wins, losses, overtime losses, final points. Even best and worst case point finishes.

The Canucks it seems are mixed in with Anaheim, Calgary, Arizona for a 3rd place fight in the Pacific division and the last playoff spot.

It seems that Los Angeles and San Jose, are given the best chances of finishing 1rst and 2nd in the Pacific division, with 3rd and the last playoff position up for grabs between the above four teams.

Edmonton is projected to be eight to ten points out of playoff contention at season end.

So, taking the records as they stand today; strength of schedule; average goal differential, the computer digests all the information and spits out a prediction devoid of future variables not able to be taken into consideration at that particular moment of time.

In this case, as illustrated below, Arizona is projected to take the last playoff spot in the Pacific division, with the Canucks to just miss it, based on less wins primarily, due to both teams being equal on projected point totals.

The Canucks do have 5-games against the San Jose Sharks, a best of 5 playoff you could say, that might prove very interesting to both teams chances of being able to secure playoff positions. Four of those games are in March.

The games Vancouver faces against San Jose, Arizona, Calgary and Anaheim in February, March and April are as follows:

FEBRUARY 2016

  • San Jose: Sunday, 28th at VAN
  • Arizona: Wednesday, 10th in ARI
  • Calgary:  Saturday, 7th at VAN; Friday, 19th in CAL
  • Anaheim: Thursday, 18th at VAN

MARCH 2016

  • San Jose: Thursday, 3rd at VAN; Saturday, 5th in SJS; Tuesday, 29th at VAN; Thursday, 31rst in SJS
  • Arizona: Wednesday, 9th at VAN

APRIL 2016

  • Calgary: Thursday, 7th in CAL
  • Anaheim: Friday, 1rst in ANA

Canucks Playoff Probabilities – As of January 24, 2016   12pm PST

-http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

screenshot-www hockey-reference com 2016-01-24 12-26-38

CANUCKS IN FEBRUARY

  • 8 home games;
  • 3 road games.
  • Pacific division games against:
    • Calgary (2: 1H-1A) Arizona (A), Anaheim (H) and San Jose (H).
  • Central division games against:
    • Colorado (2: 1H-1A), Minnesota (H).
  • Eastern Conference games against:
    • Toronto (H), Ottawa (H), Columbus (H)

CANUCKS IN MARCH:

  • 9 home games
  • 7 road games
  • Pacific division games against:
    • San Jose (4: 2H-2A), Los Angeles (A), Arizona (H), Edmonton (A)
  • Central division games against:
    • Winnipeg (2: 1H-1A), Colorado (H), St. Louis (2: 1H-1A), Nashville (2: 1H-1A), Chicago (H)
  • Eastern Conference games against:
    • New York Islanders (H)

CANUCKS IN APRIL:

  • 2 home games
  • 3 road games
  • Pacific division games against:
    • Edmonton (2: 1H-1A), Los Angeles (H), Calgary (A), Anaheim (A)

CANUCKS PLAYER STATS-as of January 24, 2016

screenshot-www hockey-reference com 2016-01-24 12-13-37

screenshot-www hockey-reference com 2016-01-24 12-13-04

screenshot-www hockey-reference com 2016-01-24 12-10-33

screenshot-www hockey-reference com 2016-01-24 12-12-02  VANCOUVER CANUCK STATISTICS COURTESY OF Hockey-Reference.com

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