Drop in consumer confidence continues – personal finances slide (released February 1, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

The negative trend in consumer confidence continues in Canada on multiple fronts.  The Prairies have hit yet another low in confidence, and positive sentiment on personal finances realized a noticeable one week drop.

“Canadian economic sentiment continues to dampen with only 18 per cent of Canadians saying they expect the Canadian economy will get stronger in the next six months compared to 43 per cent who believe the economy will get weaker,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“As last fall’s election suggests, we could anticipate an improvement in consumer sentiment if and when a fiscal stimulus becomes apparent. In the meantime, consumers are contending with wage growth that remains substantially below long-term averages and employment prospects that have been deteriorating for the past 12 months”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 52.07 compared with last week’s 52.31. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 57.95 this week compared to 59.18 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 46.19 this week (compared to 45.45 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.61 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 52.79 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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