Canada’s economic mood remains flat – 30-39 year olds hit one year low in consumer confidence (released February 8, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

Although the overall week over week tracking in the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index remained flat, the one week change on people’s reported state of personal finances realized noticeable negative pressure.

“Only 13.5% of Canadians said their personal finances have improved over the past year compared to 31.0% who said their finances have worsened,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos. “Also of note, middle aged Canadians 30-39 years of age hit a new one year low in confidence.

“The oil-price shock continues to reverberate through Canada’s labor market, with another uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.2% and a drop in manufacturing employment in the latest reported data. There are some positive signals, however. Canadian business sentiment appears to be rising, and the Atlanta Fed’s ‘nowcast’ is for U.S. GDP to grow by 2.2% in the first quarter, both essential for a Canadian economic recovery”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 52.17 compared with last week’s 52.07. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 57.71 this week compared to 57.95 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 46.62 this week (compared to 46.19 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.59 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 52.67 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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