Three month slide in Canadian consumer confidence halts (released February 22, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

Tracking of consumer sentiment in the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index suggests that a three month slide has halted for the most recent week of tracking.

“Although still hovering near their 12 month low, consumer confidence in both the Prairies and Ontario increased this week,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos. “This will have to be monitored to see if a new trend emerges with the successive weeks of tracking.”

“Consumer sentiment has been anticipating the decline in economic activity over the past 18 months, which makes this latest uptick noteworthy. Still, the low level of household expectations coincides with the median assessment of professional economists who are calling for the economy to grow by only 1.6 percent in 2016, with a 35 percent probability of a Canadian recession in the next year”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 53.47 compared with last week’s 52.13. The twelve month high stands at 58.62. The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 57.45 this week compared to 57.47 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 49.50 this week (compared to 46.80 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.55 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 52.71 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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