Canadian consumer confidence shows positive pressure (released April 18, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

Both the forward looking Expectations Sub-indice and the retrospective Pocketbook Sub-indices showed positive movement in the past week which included pronouncements by the Governor of the Bank of Canada on the state of the Canadian economy.

“Overall, forward looking views on real estate and the strength of the Canadian economy are noticeably above the 2016 average for those two measures,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos. “This is in contrast to perceptions related to job security and personal finances which are flat for 2016.”

“Consumer attitudes among younger cohorts suggest that while the economy will be facing excess capacity, weak investment, and significant labor-market slack over coming year, low interest rates and energy prices should prop up household spending in the near term. In the longer-run, recent analysis suggests that Canada’s labor market has become more flexible, with younger workers and women more attuned to changing employment opportunities, which should help the economy transition toward new industries”, said Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 55.87 compared with last week’s 55.01. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 57.53 this week compared to 56.75 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 54.21 this week (compared to 53.27 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.45 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 53.59 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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