Week over week confidence steady, confidence in strength of Canadian economy sliding (released July 25, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

The week over week Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index remained steady.  However, confidence in the future strength of the Canadian economy cycled to a three month low

“Only 21.7 per cent of Canadians believe the Canadian economy will get stronger compared to 25.3 per cent who believe it will get weaker resulting in continued net negative sentiment on this forward looking measure,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“Canada’s economic growth is anticipated to be a subpar 1.4% this year and 2.1% in 2017, according to the IMF. That would be just about average among the developed economies, but moderate nonetheless and against a backdrop of global uncertainty. More to the point for consumers, a recent Bank of Canada paper confirms an overall lack of wage pressure since 2015 and decreases in manufacturing wages specifically. There are some positive signs, however, including increases in service-sector wages and steps toward an entrepreneurship economy that might take time to filter through to household confidence”, said Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 57.55 compared with last week’s 57.25. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 58.83 this week compared to 58.48 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 56.26 this week (compared to 56.02 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.52 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 55.44 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over.

The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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