Positive jump in views on personal finances along with arrival of Canada Child Benefit while real estate slides (released August 29, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

Two forces seem to be at play for this week’s Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index.  On the one hand views on personal finances rose coincidentally with the new Canada Child Benefit kicking while perceptions on the future value of real estate dampened.

“Fluctuations beneath the top-line index on personal finances and real estate suggest Canadians are cross pressured – on the one hand taking the newly changed Child Benefit but increasing concern about the value of real estate,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“While households are apparently reacting to policy attempts to mitigate the housing bubble, there has been a 15-month uptrend in the hiring intentions of Canadian businesses that could be attributed to policy attempts to jump start a sustainable recovery. The translation of those intentions into actual labour-market gains could eventually retake center stage”, Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 59.27 compared with last week’s 59.93. The twelve month high stands at 59.90.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 62.51 this week compared to 61.08 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 56.04 this week (compared to 58.77 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.60 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 55.98 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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