Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking
The latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Index showed continued negative pressure on sentiment on all sub measures which comprise the Index.
“Of note, the one week change on the forward views of the strength of the Canadian economy was noticeable and should be monitored ,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.
“Households have predictively reacted to the low level of interest rates and limited return on their savings by investing in real estate, an asset with a higher expected return. Their level of investment, however, leaves them more vulnerable to shocks of any nature. So the recent experience of both domestic and global shocks might go a long way in explaining the drop in economic expectations as well as belt-tightening by home owners relative to renters”, said Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.
The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 56.67 compared with last week’s 57.72. The twelve month high stands at 59.93.
The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 60.50 this week compared to 61.49 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 52.84 this week (compared to 53.96 last week).
The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.61 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 56.11 this year.
The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.