Week over week Canadian consumer confidence steady after four week slide (released September 26, 2016)

Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

The latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence survey suggests the overall week over week mood is steady after four weeks of weakening confidence.

“Although the overall week over week numbers were steady, the tracking hit a new six month low on the future strength of the Canadian economy,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“Consumer expectations have exhibited a six-month cycle of late, dropping sharply and recovering as each economic or political event plays out. Nonetheless, the longer-term issues that ultimately affect household balance sheets remain intact. Canada’s capacity utilization is at multi-year lows — which doesn’t argue for increased private investment any time soon — and productivity growth has slowed, which argues for more investment in intellectual capital and infrastructure”, said Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 56.50 compared with last week’s 56.67. The twelve month high stands at 59.93.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 58.66 this week compared to 60.50 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 54.35 this week (compared to 52.84 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.61 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 56.12 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.

The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.

The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100.

A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.