2016 Federal Budget Analysis | Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives

Commentary and Analysis

Organizational Responses

Source: 2016 Federal Budget Analysis | Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives

Budget turns left but doesn’t step on the gas

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March 22, 2016

OTTAWA—Today’s federal budget delivers on poverty reduction, makes important steps towards reducing inequality, and addresses decades of underfunding and neglect on reserves. However, delaying infrastructure and social program investments will not solve the problems of slow growth and high unemployment.

“This budget provides something that’s been missing for a long time: a real response to poverty and inequality,” says CCPA Senior Economist David Macdonald. “Today’s changes to the Canada Child Benefit and Guaranteed Income Supplement will have a big impact on reducing poverty for children and seniors.”

There are many welcome investments in today’s budget but CCPA economists say more spending is needed to boost Canada’s faltering economy. The projected deficit of just over $29 billion for both of the next two years—amounting to at most 1.5% of GDP—is relatively smaller than any federal deficit run between 1974 and 1996 and federal government spending as a share of the economy remains at near-historic lows.

“The Liberals are spending in the right places, but the amounts aren’t up to the task. The deficit is too small to really tackle Canada’s biggest economic challenges: unemployment and slow growth,” says Macdonald. “It’s important to remember that every deficit creates a surplus elsewhere in the economy. Every billion dollars in federal deficit means an extra billion in the pockets of Canadians through new transfers or higher wages, extra money for the provinces, and extra opportunities for businesses.”

Today’s budget implemented a large portion of the Liberal’s election platform but several promises were not addressed, including: closing the stock option deduction loophole, closing loopholes for small businesses, reducing subsidies for the fossil fuel industry, and implementing home care (although this may come in the future). The largest surprise is the carving out of major on-reserve commitments, which are positive, from money that would otherwise have gone to municipalities, which is negative.

“The Liberals’ first budget says it can, and does, move the needle on slowing growth in the first two years of this fiscal plan, creating tens of thousands of jobs in the process,” says CCPA Senior Economist Armine Yalnizyan. “Why do they then take their foot off the gas pedal and watch growth fall in the next two years of the fiscal plan?”

Economic growth forecasts continue to be downgraded, in Canada as around the world.  One of the key ways a government can counteract that trend is by investing in infrastructure. “The biggest surprise in today’s budget was the decision to back-end load infrastructure spending plans, which rise to their highest level in the Liberals’ second mandate, five years from now,” says Yalnizyan. “This five-year fiscal plan sees the federal contribution to the economy fall to the lowest level in over 60 years, as cities struggle to meet accelerating demands for affordable housing and public transit. We need the federal government to play a bigger role for more than a couple of years.”

The new federal government made a big splash last fall when Prime Minister Trudeau appointed equal numbers of women and men to Cabinet. The budget includes money to increase spaces in shelters for victims of domestic violence and support for the Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Aboriginal Woman and Girls. It lacks any significant investment in prevention measures.

“This government has made important symbolic commitments to improving women’s lives,” says Senior Researcher Kate McInturff. “What we don’t see in the budget is the money to back that up. With the addition of $3 million in 2016-2017 and $5 million in 2017-18, the budget for Status of Women accounts for a paltry 0.016% of total federal program spending in both years. That’s not going to buy real change for women in Canada.”

Source: Budget turns left but doesn’t step on the gas: think tank | Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives

Teck Resources Ltd (TCK) Stake Reduced by Swiss National Bank

Swiss National Bank decreased its stake in Teck Resources Ltd (NYSE:TCK) by 0.3% during the fourth quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 2,499,879 shares of the company’s stock after selling 7,100 shares during the period. Swiss National Bank owned approximately 0.43% of Teck Resources worth $9,625,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

A number of other institutional investors have also added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Great West Life Assurance Co. Can increased its position in Teck Resources by 9.2% in the fourth quarter. Great West Life Assurance Co. Can now owns 3,234,232 shares of the company’s stock valued at $12,482,000 after buying an additional 273,237 shares during the period. Korea Investment CORP increased its position in Teck Resources by 6.4% in the fourth quarter. Korea Investment CORP now owns 612,700 shares of the company’s stock valued at $2,355,000 after buying an additional 36,900 shares during the period. Finally, Hexavest Inc. acquired a new position in Teck Resources during the fourth quarter valued at $1,895,000.

Teck Resources Ltd (NYSE:TCK) traded up 1.957% on Tuesday, reaching $8.595. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 4,951,063 shares. Teck Resources Ltd has a 52 week low of $2.56 and a 52 week high of $16.20. The stock’s 50 day moving average is $6.08 and its 200-day moving average is $5.14. The firm’s market capitalization is $4.95 billion.

Over the last five days, shares have gained 5.38% and 94.57% year to date. Shares have underperformed the S&P TSX by 36.99% during the last year.                  http://www.theglobeandmail.com March 23, 2016

Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, February 11th. The company reported $0.03 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.02) by $0.05. The firm had revenue of $2.14 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.95 billion. During the same period in the previous year, the business posted $0.23 EPS. Teck Resources’s revenue for the quarter was down 5.4% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts predict that Teck Resources Ltd will post ($0.06) EPS for the current year.

Several equities analysts recently weighed in on TCK shares. Paradigm Capital upgraded Teck Resources from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Sunday, February 14th. Zacks Investment Research upgraded Teck Resources from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Thursday, February 18th. Scotiabank restated a “sector perform” rating and set a $8.00 price target (down from $8.50) on shares of Teck Resources in a research note on Tuesday, February 16th. Canaccord Genuity lowered Teck Resources from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Thursday, December 17th. Finally, Nomura dropped their price target on Teck Resources from $6.40 to $4.25 in a research note on Friday, January 8th. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eleven have given a hold rating and six have issued a buy rating to the stock. Teck Resources currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $9.47.

Teck Resources Ltd. is engaged in the business of exploring, acquiring, developing and producing natural resources. The Company is focused on steelmaking coal, copper, zinc and energy. The Company exports seaborne steelmaking coal and produces mined zinc. The Company also produces lead, molybdenum, silver, and various specialty and other metals, chemicals and fertilizers.

12 Month Chart for NYSE:TCK

Source: Teck Resources Ltd (TCK) Stake Reduced by Swiss National Bank – Financial Market News

Teck Resources Ltd lower today, after setting a new 100-day high

screenshot-www theglobeandmail com 2016-03-08 06-50-26

Teck Resources Ltd is sharply lower today, dropping $0.36 or 3.35% to $10.39 after setting a new 100-day high. Over the last five days, shares have gained 30.53% and 94.57% year to date. Shares have underperformed the S&P TSX by 32.22% during the last year.

Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/

 

Canucks Running Out Of Games As They Play Sharks In Home-and-Home Set Starting Tonight

CANUCKS BANTER     By Andrew Chernoff    MARCH 3, 2016

 

The Vancouver Canucks (24-26-12) end their 5-game home stand tonight against the San Jose Sharks (34-22-6), the second game home game against the Sharks in five days.

The Canucks will play the Sharks three more times in March, as they try to catch either them or Colorado for a playoff spot. The Sharks are 14-points in front of Vancouver, and the Avalanche have an 8-point lead on the Canucks, with Vancouver having 2-games in hand on Colorado.

Vancouver are running out of games as they have only 20 left, and both Colorado, with 32; and the Sharks, with 34, have more wins than the Canucks 24. The Canucks don’t just need points—–THEY NEED WINS!

VANCOUVER, BC - FEBRUARY 28: Christopher Tanev #8 of the Vancouver Canucks checks Joe Pavelski #8 of the San Jose Sharks as Ryan Miller #30 of the Canucks eyes the puck during their NHL game at Rogers Arena February 28, 2016 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

VANCOUVER, BC – FEBRUARY 28: Christopher Tanev #8 of the Vancouver Canucks checks Joe Pavelski #8 of the San Jose Sharks as Ryan Miller #30 of the Canucks eyes the puck during their NHL game at Rogers Arena February 28, 2016 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

On Sunday, the Sharks scored four unanswered goals in the final period to defeat the Canucks 4-1. Daniel Sedin had the only Canucks goal, his 23rd of the season; Henrik Sedin and Ben Hutton had assists. For Daniel, with the goal, he became the 60th player in NHL history to reach 350 career goals (and the 5th Swede to do so). Ryan Miller stopped 24 of 27 shots for a .889 Sv% for his 4rth loss of February.

Ryan Miller is expected to get the start again against the Sharks  tonight for the Canucks. Miller finished the month of February with a record of 3-4-1 with a GAA of 2.26 and .929 Sv%. He has registered a .929 save percentage over his last 13 games and is 4-7-2 with a 2.38 GAA.

Martin Jones is expected to be between the pipes for San Jose, for the second straight game between the two teams. The Sharks currently sit in 3rd place in the Pacific Division, but are just 4-points out of 1rst place.

Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns each had three points in the Sharks’ 6-2 victory against the Montreal Canadiens at SAP Center on Tuesday night. Goaltender Martin Jones made 21 saves for his 31st win.

Recently-recalled Brendan Gaunce will be in the line-up for the Canucks tonight as Radim Vrbata will miss his 4rth straight game with a groin injury.

Brendan Gaunce speaking with reporters on March 3, 2016 after morning skate. Canucks Twitter.

Brendan Gaunce speaking with reporters on March 3, 2016 after morning skate. Canucks Twitter.

“I want to show that I can play at a high compete level.” Brendan Gaunce talks about making his home ice debut.

Source: Vancouver Canucks Twitter

Jannik Hansen (ribs) is day-to-day. Brandon Sutter (fractured jaw) and Alexander Edler (fibula fracture) are on the injured reserve list.

The next game  for the two teams after tonight will be another rematch on Saturday night in San Jose.

Vancouver has the 3rd worst home record in the NHL at 11-15-5, and have lost their last two home games, and desperately need a win and the two points.

The Canucks power play at home this season is 8th best in the NHL at 22 percent (22 for 100); their penalty killing is 9th best in the NHL at 85.2 percent (75 for 88).

Point Streaks:

BEN HUTTON (0-2-2 / 2 Games)
HENRIK SEDIN (0-2-2 / 2 Games)
DANIEL SEDIN (2-0-2 / 2 Games)

Home Sweet Home

  • Canucks are 2-2-0 on their home stand going into tonight’s final game.
  • They are averaging: 3.25 goals per game; 2.75 goals against
  • Power play is 37.5 percent (3 for 8), 5th best in the NHL since February 21rst
  • Penalty kill is 90 percent (9 for 10), 7th best in the NHL since February 21rst. The other six teams are all perfect for 100 percent.
  • Face-off winning percentage is 46.2 percent, 23rd best during the home stand; overall this season they are worst in the NHL at home at 47.1 percent.

Canucks are not doing that badly on their home stand; with some puck going their way, they could be 3-1-0 going into tonight’s game. They need to guard a complete collapse in their game when they are up in the game with the lead, especially if that is the case going into the final period.

“If we play our game, we can beat them. We didn’t show up in the 3rd last game, we have to play a full 60 tonight” – Sbisa

Source: Vancouver Canucks Twitter

CANUCKS PREVIOUS GAME

Vancouver could not find a way to win against division rival San Jose on Sunday afternoon, and all the puck luck was bad against the Islanders on Tuesday night, as the Canucks lost 3-2, New York’s first win on their Western Canada road trip, after losing to Edmonton.

Linden Vey with a power play goal, and Daniel Sedin with his second goal in consecutive games; Ben Hutton and Henrik Sedin with assists; and Jacob Markstrom stopped 21 of 24 shots for a .875 Sv%, to lead the Canucks.

Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi, Jake Virtanen, Derek Dorsett had good games in a losing effort.

Jacob Markstrom is  now 6-4-1 in his last 11 game starts with a 2.59 GAA, and .914 Sv%.

VANCOUVER, BC - FEBRUARY 28: Bo Horvat #53 of the Vancouver Canucks checks Logan Couture #39 of the San Jose Sharks during their NHL game at Rogers Arena February 28, 2016 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

VANCOUVER, BC – FEBRUARY 28: Bo Horvat #53 of the Vancouver Canucks checks Logan Couture #39 of the San Jose Sharks during their NHL game at Rogers Arena February 28, 2016 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

CANUCKS JOTTINGS

  • Bo Horvat leads the team with 12 points (6-6-12) in 15 GP versus Metropolitan division opponents, including a 51.3 FOW%.
  • Horvat leads the team and ranks 16th in the League in face-offs wins (561), 6th in defensive zone face-off wins (254), and 5th in face-off wins when Vancouver is ahead (215).
  • Chris Tanev leads the team and ranks 7th in the League in blocked shots with 147
  • Ben Hutton ranks t-eighth among NHL rookies in assists with 18. He is also currently in third for most assists in club history by a rookie defenceman. Mattias Ohlund leads in both the assists (23) and points (30) categories.
  • Ben Hutton ranks eighth among rookies with 19:05 TOI; he has led the team in TOI in five of the past nine games including a career-high 25:03 on March 1 at home against the New York Islanders.
  • Canucks have the second fewest wins (24) in the Western Conference, and are  8 points behind Colorado for the last  Western conference wild card playoff spot, with 2-games in-hand on the Avalanche.
  • Canuck Point Leaders In 2016:
    • Bo Horvat: 8-9=17 in 24 games played
    • Daniel Sedin: 8-9=17 in 24 games played
    • Henrik Sedin: 1-14=15 in 20 games played
    • Linden Vey: 3-9=12 in 22 games played
    • Chris Tanev: 3-7=10 in 24 games played
    • Sven Baertschi: 7-3=10 in 22 games played
    • Jannick Hansen: 7-3=10 in 19 games played
    • Ben Hutton: 1-9=10 in 24 games played
  • Power play is 6 for 21 in last 8 games for 28.6 percent, 5th best in the NHL since February 12.
  • Penalty kill is 20 for 23 in last 8 games for 87.0 percent, 10th best in the NHL since February 12.
  • Penalty kill: 34 for 39 for 87.2 percent in last 13 games, 4th best in the NHL since January 25.
  • Canucks are averaging 2.42 goals per game. For an 82 game schedule the estimate is Vancouver will finish with 198 goals. The least number of goals ever scored by a Vancouver team in a full season of 82 games are 192 by the 1998-99 Canucks. 
    • Vancouver needs to average 2.15 goals per game over their last 20 games for a minimum 193 goals, to avoid 2015-16 being the season for the least number of goals ever scored by a Vancouver team.
  • Vancouver has held their opponents under two or fewer goals 24 times this season (19-2-3 record overall).
  • The Canucks penalty kill ranks 14th in the NHL overall at 81.5%.
  • Vancouver power play is 6 for 18 in the last 7 games for 33.3 percent, 3rd best in the NHL since February 14.
  • Canucks were out shot in seven consecutive games, from February 9th to 21rst, and are 17-13-6 this season when being out-shot.
  • Vancouver in 2016 so far:
    • 10-11-3 in 24 games for 23 points:  21rst in the NHL
    • 55 goals for:  3rd worst in the NHL
    • 68 goals against: 14th best in the NHL
    • Power play is 12 for 57 @ 21.1 percent:  9th best in the NHL
    • Penalty kill is 55 for 64 @ 85.9 percent:  6th best in the NHL
    • Shots for:  665–2nd worst in the NHL: 27.1 average per game
    • Shots against:  784– 14th in the NHL: 32.7 average per game
    • FOW%: 45.3 percent–> worst in the NHL
    • Team Hits: 396–>worst in the NHL
    • Team Blocked Shots: 318–>26th in the NHL
    • Team Giveaways: 185–>9th best in the NHL
    • Team Takeaways: 134–>3rd worst in the NHL
    • Team Shooting %: 8.3–>20th best in the NHL
  • The Canucks have had eight different players make their NHL debut this season (McCann, Virtanen, Hutton, Gaunce, Shinkaruk,Grenier, Pedan, and Friesen). The last season where eight or more players made their NHL debut in a single season for the Canucks was in 1999.00 (eight players): Steve Kariya, Harold Druken, Artem Chubarov, Zenith Komarniski, Jarkko Ruutu, Brad Leeb, Ryan Bonni, Alfie Michaud. The club record for NHL debuts in a single season is 11 which occurred during the 1973.74 season.

 

PACIFIC DIVISION STANDINGS

screenshot-canucks nhl com 2016-03-03 11-18-36

VANCOUVER ADVANCED STATS AGAINST SAN JOSE

GAME OF FEBRUARY 28TH, 2016

SHARKS 4-1 CANUCKS

VANCOUVER CANUCKS GAME ADVANCED STATISTICS

MARCH 1, 2016  TO  MARCH 02, 2016

EVEN STRENGTH 5V5

ALL TEAM STRENGTHS

CANUCKS 2016 TEAM ADVANCED STATS

EVEN STRENGTH 5 v 5

  • Shot Attempts %: 46.97–>26th in NHL
  • Shot Attempts %-Close: 47.24–>24rth in NHL
  • Unblocked Shot Attempts%: 46.70–>27th in NHL
  • Unblocked Shot Attempts %-Close: 47.57–>24rth in NHL
  • Team Even Strength Shooting Plus Save %: 996–>19th in NHL
  • 5 on 5 Zone Start %: 48.85-2 ->20th in NHL
  • 5 on 5 Shooting %: 6.8->20th in the NHL
  • 5 on 5 Save %: .929->9th in the NHL

WESTERN CONFERENCE WILD CARD STANDINGS

screenshot-canucks nhl com 2016-03-03 11-20-43

CANUCKS PLAYER STATS

screenshot-canucks nhl com 2016-03-02 10-43-56

SHARKS PLAYER STATS

screenshot-sharks nhl com 2016-03-02 10-47-27

STATISTICS COURTESY OF THE NHL AND VANCOUVER CANUCKS

What do Canadians in every riding believe about climate change?

MONTREAL, February 22, 2016 – As the Trudeau government prepares for its early March First Ministers Meetings on climate change, researchers from the University of Montreal, University of California Santa Barbara, Utah State University and Yale University have just released a new interactive tool to visualize, with unprecedented detail, the geographic distribution of climate opinions across Canada. It allows users to download the underlying estimates of public opinion for each province and riding in Canada. This new tool, presented in the form of maps, is available in English and in French.

The Canadian Climate Opinion Maps (CCOM) was created using a statistical model based on over 5,000 responses to national surveys from 2011-2015. It reveals that, nationally, 79% of Canadians believe that Earth is getting warmer, but the new public opinion maps show distinct differences among provinces and ridings. Moreover, about 67% of adults believe the Earth is warming in Alberta, for example, whereas 85% believe this in Quebec. Within federal electoral districts, percentages vary from 56% in the Souris-Moose Mountain riding in Saskatchewan, to 91% in the riding of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

“Our research shows that across the country, a majority of Canadians are aware of the problem of rising global temperature on Earth, and many believe humans are directly contributing to this warming. This is true across Canadian regions and across the urban-rural divide as well”, said one of the project’s lead researchers, University of Montreal Professor Erick Lachapelle.

In terms of possible solutions for fighting climate change, the idea of implementing an emissions trading system enjoys popular support (66%) across the country. Meanwhile, a carbon tax is less popular nationally (49%), with support for more carbon taxes also being much more variable across ridings.

“Given the importance of public beliefs and perceptions about climate change for mitigation and adaptation planning, we wanted to provide this tool to the public to help foster awareness and dialogue on this crucial issue,” explained University of California Santa Barbara Assistant Professor and lead author Matto Mildenberger. “Hopefully, this strong public support will be reflected in ambitious decision making in the coming months,” he said.

“Thanks to this tool, we are able for the first time in Canada to visualize the geographic diversity of opinions across this vast country, at an unprecedented level of granularity,” added Lachapelle. “We always knew opinions varied across Canadian provinces. Now we see that urban-rural differences are just as important, if not more important, features of Canadian public opinion on climate change” he said

“Of course, opinions and policy preferences are not uniform across the country. So this tool illustrates not only where climate policy support is concentrated, but perhaps more importantly, it depicts where enhanced outreach and engagement efforts are required to bring the public on side with what needs to happen” concluded Lachapelle.

Though high-resolution data sets for climate change risks are readily available, data on public opinion at the local level is almost non-existent. This new data set allows novel insight into public perceptions at scales much closer to where actual decisions, outreach and planning take place. This will be an important resource for decision-makers, planners, practitioners, academics, and engaged citizens.

About the tool:

Users can explore the maps and data by clicking on your province or riding, and compare results across questions and with other geographic areas. They should keep in mind that the uncertainty of the estimates increase as they refine their search to closer geographic scales.

All estimates are derived from a geographic and statistical model validated in the United States and applied to national survey data collected in Canada since 2011 (>5000 survey responses). These data were used to estimate differences in opinion between geographic and demographic groups based on data from Statistics Canada. The results account for change over time. The result is a high-resolution data set of estimated opinion at the national, provincial and riding scales for the year 2015. The accuracy of the estimates are approximately +/- 6 percentage points for provincial-level estimates and +/- 7 percentage points for estimates at the riding level (at a 95% level of confidence).

Source: University of Montreal

Source: What do Canadians in every riding believe about climate change? | Science Codex

Statistics Canada: Bottom 20% of households spending over half their budgets on basic necessities

FEBRUARY 12, 2016 by

How hard is it to make ends meet these days?

New data released Friday by Statistics Canada shows low-income Canadians are spending over half their budgets on food, shelter and clothes – basic necessities.

“The 20% of households with the lowest income spent an average of $31,974 in 2014,” Statistics Canada reports. “Of this total, 51.2% was allocated to shelter, food, and clothing and accessories.”

On average, the bottom 20% of Canadian households spent $10,484 on shelter, $4,315 on food and $1,585 on clothes.

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Other big expenses for households in the bottom 20% include transportation (an average expense of $4,984 in 2014), household operations ($2,259), healthcare ($1,232) and education ($1,035).

But although households in the bottom 20% spent an average of $31,974, they’re likely spending more than they’re bringing in.

The latest available data on incomes in Canada shows the ceiling for being grouped in the bottom 20% of households was $26,200 in 2013.

Households in the bottom 20% spend on average $16,384 on food, shelter and clothing alone, representing 62.5% of the highest possible income one could earn while still being grouped in the bottom 20%.

bottom20-income-spending-chart.png

While households in the bottom 20% spent over half their budgets on basic necessities, Statistics Canada’s data shows the top 20% of households spent “28.5% of their budgets on shelter, food, and clothing and accessories.”

Higher incomes mean bigger budgets, of course – top households spend an average of $46,167 on shelter, food and clothing each year, compared to $16,384 for the bottom 20%.

But the gap between what top (and middle) income households spend on their budgets versus what they spend on basic necessities only underlines the squeeze Canadian households at the bottom are feeling these days with the rising costs of housing and food.

unnamed-1.png

Photo: Shutterstock.

Source: Statistics Canada: Bottom 20% of households spending over half their budgets on basic necessities