Are there enough Canadians to really stop the Harper juggernaut on October 19?….Just Saying….

October 13, 2015       Andrew Chernoff Just-saying

The headlines have the Harper Conservatives on the ropes; the election all but over:

‘There’s a real chance that Justin’s Liberals could form government’: Conservatives warn-National Post-Oct 12, 2015

Liberals within reach of strong minority: poll-Toronto Star – ‎Oct 10, 2015‎

Conservatives On Defence In Several Urban Man. And Sask. Ridings-Huffington Post Canada-Oct 13, 2015

Harper Tries to Fend Off Trudeau in Last Week of Canada Vote-Bloomberg-Oct 11, 2015

No room for ambition or contenders in ‘party of one’ –Waterloo Record-Oct 13, 2015

“The Conservatives will have only themselves to blame when the votes are counted next Monday” says Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph.

Say it isn’t so? Gentle my heart….Proof that Santa Claus exists…..Must get that Lotto 649 ticket NOW!!!

BRITISH COLUMBIA ELECTION OF 2013

As a British Columbian, since the provincial election of 2013 (2013 B.C. election: The post-mortem), forgive me for being once bitten, twice shy. The BC NDP were to win by a landslide. The polls said so. The electorate said so. The province had enough of the Liberals and it was time to strike them down and put an end to that totalitarian government once and for all.

Yeah, right. The polls lied. British Columbians lied.

When it came to actually putting their vote where it counted, too many British Columbians committed hari kari and drank the BC Liberal juice.

Once again proving that too many British Columbians are ineffectual and timid to affecting real change. They are pussies: B.C. election: Christy Clark pulls off an upset for the ages: Defying all pre-election polling and prognostication, Liberal Leader Christy Clark retained power in British Columbia Tuesday night-Tim Harper.

MORE OF THE SAME?

On Monday, October 19, will Canadians from coast-to-coast-to coast make the pollsters right? Will there be at least a federal Liberal minority government, if not majority government, in place on Tuesday, October 20? Or, will it be a minority NDP federal government? Or, dread the thought, more of the same?

Both Stephen Harper and his government were supposed to be regulated to the opposition last election. Remember?

“Harper finally wins majority as NDP surges into Opposition”-Globe and Mail-May 2, 2011:

Canadian voters have radically redrawn the country’s political landscape, handing the Conservative Party its long-sought majority in an election that decimated the Bloc Québécois and humbled the Liberals.

For the first time in history, the New Democratic Party will form the Official Opposition after an extraordinary breakthrough that propelled the party to more than 100 seats.

The extent of the transformation is startling. The Liberals now hold just four seats west of Guelph, Ont. The Conservatives, formerly shunned by Toronto voters, won nearly half of the seats in that city, twice as many as the Liberals. The Bloc Québécois, which defined Quebec federal politics for two decades, no longer qualifies for official party status. And Green Party Leader Elizabeth May won the party’s first seat, and the right to a place in the next election’s debates.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe lost his seat and resigned. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff lost his riding. Both defeated leaders were squeezed, like many of their candidates, between growth in Conservative support and Jack Layton’s surging New Democrats.

The night belonged to Stephen Harper, who put his party over the top after five years of minority government and becomes just the third Conservative leader since Confederation to win triple victories.

Federal elections are much tougher to win, I must admit and the NDP did make a strong showing, to become the official opposition.

But……Canadians are like teenage girls drawn to “bad boys”……they are drawn to Harper and the rest of the Conservatives “bad boys…and girls”.  Whatever the bad boys do opposes the book of rules which they rewrite for their own needs and purpose and that’s how they succeed to trigger an adrenaline rush in the Canadian electorate and draw them in for four more years.

I mean, how else do you explain the sado masochistic tendency that occurs every time Harper leads his Conservative party into a federal election. Between elections Canadians complain about everything and swear on everything including the Bible that change must occur: we must get rid of Harper and his Conservatives and elect a different federal party to be the government of Canada.

The polls prove it…..remember 2011…..and those trusting polls…..the Conservatives on the ropes….the NDP support….the Liberals.

The lesson from the 2011 federal election….the lesson the provincial BC NDP learned the hard way in 2013, repeating the history of the 2011 federal election….is that most polls aren’t worth believing: Canadians love to hear themselves complain and do nothing about it when it counts. Talk talk. Talk talk.

10. Most polls aren’t worth more than a glance of Canada’s political future through a crystal ball.

Most polling firms underestimated the Tories’ strength and overestimated the Liberals’ influence. So what did Canadians learn from the raft of fluctuating numbers and contradictory public opinion polls?

According to Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg, not much. “[They learned] that sometimes it’s better to be uninformed than misinformed,” he said.

Mr. Gregg says methodological issues are skewing results of telephone and online polls, including a dwindling number of landlines and people not answering their home phones to avoid telemarketers.

“The industry is going through a transition, and as a result our work is more imperfect than it is at the best of times,” he says. “We cannot predict behaviour, predicting turnout is impossible, and answers are only reflections of the questions that are asked.”

Ipsos Reid proved to be the most accurate of the country’s data slingers, posting poll results that closely mirrored the final tally. But Ipsos Reid’s Darrell Bricker says he doesn’t count on results purely from the so-called “random sample.”

“The real issue is coverage and making sure you have an adequate representation of the population in the sample,” he said. “What it comes down to is good science and being skeptical by your own numbers. The job of good social science is you never take anything from one source.” Ten lessons to learn from the 2011 election National Post (blog)-May 3, 2011

So what will it be?  C’mon I have to know right now. What’s it gonna be? Harper’s Conservatives, Trudeau’s Liberals or Mulcair’s New Democrats?

I know….I know….the same ole tune, right. Let me guess…..

Let me sleep on it
Baby, baby, let me sleep on it
Let me sleep on it
And I’ll give you an answer in the morning
Let me sleep on it
Baby, baby, let me sleep on it
Let me sleep on it
And I’ll give you an answer in the morning
Let me sleep on it
Baby, baby, let me sleep on it
Let me sleep on it
And I’ll give you an answer in the morning

My prediction is….more of the same….the Harper Conservatives are the federal party Canadians love to hate, and the majority of Canadians are too far-gone on that Harper Conservative cocktail. It’s an obsession you just can’t quit. Defies all logic and common sense.

In the end, you disavow any personal responsibility. Harper made you do it. That bad boy.

Like the song says:

I couldn’t take it any longer
Lord I was crazed
And when the feeling came upon me
Like a tidal wave
I started swearing to my god
And on my mother’s grave
That I would love you to the end of time
I swore I would love you to the end of time

Just saying….