Week over week Canadian consumer confidence steady after four week slide (released September 26, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

The latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence survey suggests the overall week over week mood is steady after four weeks of weakening confidence.

“Although the overall week over week numbers were steady, the tracking hit a new six month low on the future strength of the Canadian economy,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“Consumer expectations have exhibited a six-month cycle of late, dropping sharply and recovering as each economic or political event plays out. Nonetheless, the longer-term issues that ultimately affect household balance sheets remain intact. Canada’s capacity utilization is at multi-year lows — which doesn’t argue for increased private investment any time soon — and productivity growth has slowed, which argues for more investment in intellectual capital and infrastructure”, said Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 56.50 compared with last week’s 56.67. The twelve month high stands at 59.93.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 58.66 this week compared to 60.50 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 54.35 this week (compared to 52.84 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.61 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 56.12 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.

The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.

The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100.

A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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Almost seven in ten Canadians continue to think Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader in Nanos tracking (ending September 16, 2016)

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Nanos Weekly Leadership Tracking

  • Preferred Prime Minister – The latest Nanos tracking as to who Canadians prefer as Prime Minister has Trudeau at 53.9 per cent, Ambrose at 15.6 per cent, Mulcair at 8.3 per cent, May at 3.7 per cent and 17.2 per cent were unsure who they preferred.
  • Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal political leader, almost seven of ten Canadians (69.1%) think Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 45.9 per cent think Mulcair has the qualities of a good political leader.  Almost four in ten (39.5%) believe May has the qualities of a good political leader and 34.6 per cent believe Ambrose has the qualities of a good political leader.

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out.

To view the detailed tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a party power brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand power and 100 means it has maximum brand power. A score above 50 is an indication of brand power for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand power of one federal party relative to another.

The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians, using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada, and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.

The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The current wave of tracking is based on a four-week rolling average of 1,000 Canadians (250 per week) ending September 16th, 2016.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite “Nanos Party Power Index” as the source.

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Canadians support non-combat role – open to bringing 25,000 Syrian refugees (Globe and Mail/Nanos Survey)

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Canadians support training local troops in Syria and accepting 25,000 refugees; split on sending Canadian troops to fight ISIS or providing only humanitarian aid

A majority of Canadians support sending non-combat personnel to Syria to train local troops, as well as the Trudeau Liberals’ pledge to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees into Canada. Contrary to current government plans, deploying Canadian fighter jets to support the international mission was also supported, although support has experienced a decline over the past year. Support was split among Canadians when considering sending in Canadian ground troops to fight ISIS directly, or providing only humanitarian aid.

  • Training local troops only – The most popular choice for intervention in the Syrian conflict, according to Canadians, is to deploy non-combat military to train local troops in the region. Four fifths of Canadians (81%) either support or somewhat support the deployment of non-combat troops (54% support; 27% somewhat support), while 16% of Canadians either somewhat oppose or oppose the same idea (8% oppose; 8% somewhat oppose).
  • Accepting 25,000 refugees – The majority of Canadians (65%) support or somewhat support the Trudeau liberal plan to bring in 25,000 refugees from Syria into Canada as promised by the Trudeau Liberals during the election (46% support; 19% somewhat support). Twelve percent say they would somewhat oppose this plan, and one fifth (22%) say they would oppose the plan.
  • Deployment of fighter jets – Contrary to the Trudeau Liberal’s plan to stop Canadian air support in the international mission in Syria, a majority of Canadians (59%) continue to support or somewhat support the deployment of fighter jets in Syria. Thirty-eight percent support, and 21% somewhat support deploying the jets- down from those who supported (44%), and who somewhat supported (21%), deployment of jets a year ago. However, almost two fifth (38%) of Canadians somewhat opposed or opposed this plan (16% oppose; 22% somewhat oppose).
  • Deployment of Canadian ground troops – Opinions on deploying ground troops to Syria were split among Canadians. Just under half of Canadians (49%) either oppose or somewhat oppose sending in ground troops to Syria to fight ISIS. Thirty-two percent said they oppose  such a plan, and 17% said they somewhat oppose it,however, fewer Canadians oppose sending in troops now compared to 2014, where 40% of respondents said they opposed such a plan. Just under half of Canadians (47%) said they would support or somewhat support sending in ground troops (24% support; 23% somewhat support)
  • Provide only humanitarian support – Opinions on providing  only humanitarian aid to Syria were similarly split among Canadians. Just under half of Canadians (49%) either oppose or somewhat oppose providing only humanitarian support and offering no military involvement in Syria (32% oppose; 17% somewhat oppose), compared to 23% who said they would oppose and 14% who said they would somewhat oppose the same thing a year ago. Comparatively, just under half of Canadians (47%) would support or somewhat support providing only humanitarian aid. Twenty-five percent of participants said they would support, and 22% said they would somewhat support, this type of intervention. This is a decline from 2014 when 38% supported, and 21% somewhat supported, the same action.

The full survey results can be found by visiting our website

Methodology

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,000 Canadians between November 21st and 24th, 2015 as part of a Canadian omnibus survey.

Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land- and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The research was commissioned by the Globe and Mail.

The margin of accuracy for a random sample of 1,000 Canadians is 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.