Consumer confidence in Canada continues to decline for tenth week in succession – Expectations near Great Recession low (released January 25, 2016)

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Bloomberg Nanos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracking

Overall consumer confidence in Canada continues to decline in the face of a lower dollar and the price in a barrel of oil.  The forward looking Expectations Sub-indice remains net negative and is near a low equivalent to one registered during the Great Recession in 2008.

“The negative sentiment in both Ontario and Alberta are significant in terms of the overall mood of the economy and potential knock-on effects on consumer spending,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“The Bank of Canada saw enough continuing slack in the economy to consider additional monetary easing, citing the impact of dislocations in the resource sector on the rest of the economy. Private forecasts are calling for sub-2% real GDP growth until the third quarter of 2016, with the success of a fiscal response and the U.S. recovery likely to play a key role in determining household balance sheets”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 52.31 compared with last week’s 53.01. The twelve month high stands at 58.62.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 59.18 this week compared to 58.99 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 45.45 this week (compared to 47.02 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.64 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 53.03 this year.

To view the weekly tracking visit our website.

Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

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